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UFC 272 Betting: Covington vs Masvidal

After eight years of friendship, Colby Covington and Jorge Masvidal went their separate ways. Their fiery feud will be on display at UFC 272, as the two men headline a must-see welterweight battle, with Covington checking in as a -350 favourite over Masvidal (+265). The event is slated to take place on Saturday, March 5 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas; the main event will be available as a pay-per-view.

In addition to the highly-anticipated main event, we have a stacked card that had to undergo some last-minute adjustments. The co-main event was supposed to be a lightweight battle between Rafael Dos Anjos and Rafael Fiziev, but Fiziev had to be pulled from the card due to COVID-19. At press, a verbal agreement is in place to have Renato Moicano step in for Fiziez on short notice. We’ll preview the top fights on the card, along with the UFC odds at press time. 

UFC 272 Main Event: Colby Covington vs. Jorge Masvidal 

The main event is a welterweight fight between No. 1 Colby Covington (16-3) and No. 6 Jorge Masvidal (35-15). Covington hit a ceiling in the welterweight division; his only two losses in the last six years came in title fights against the champion, Kamaru Usman. In the first fight, Covington made it to the final round before losing via TKO. Two years later in the rematch, Covington went the distance, only to lose by unanimous decision. Sandwiched between those two losses was a dominant victory against former welterweight champion, Tyron Woodley. 

Masvidal also came up short in his title challenges against Usman. In July 2020, Masvidal agreed to face the champion on less than a week’s notice when Gilbert Burns was pulled from the card with COVID-19. Masvidal lost via unanimous decision. In April 2021, Masvidal got a chance at redemption, but he was unable to keep up and he was knocked out for the first time in his UFC career. He’ll be keen to bounce back as a +265 underdog against Covington (-350).

UFC 272 Odds: Rafael dos Anjos vs. Renato Moicano

With Rafael Fiziev pulled from the card at the last minute, Rafael dos Anjos (30-13) has been potentially rematched with Renato “Moicano” Carneiro (16-4-1) for the co-main event. Moicano is coming off a lightweight fight at UFC 271 on February 12 that saw him submit (rear-naked choke) Alexander Hernandez less than two minutes into the second round. 

After winning, defending and then losing the lightweight title in 2015-16, Dos Anjos switched to welterweight for four years, but couldn’t make it to the top. He then committed to the lightweight division, signing a new contract, and returned in dramatic fashion, beating Paul Felder by split decision and winning Fight of the Night in the process. Keep checking in with the UFC odds board for fresh Dos Anjos-Moicano odds as the matchup is solidified. 

UFC 272 Odds: Edson Barboza vs. Bryce Mitchell 

This intriguing featherweight bout will see the UFC veteran, Edson Barboza (22-10) take on Bryce Mitchell (14-0). This will be a fascinating contrast of fighting styles, with Barboza, a natural kick boxer who wins mostly by KO/TKO, getting his grappling defense tested. A submission specialist, Mitchell started his combat career as an amateur wrestler, and the skills on the mat have carried over; nine of his 17 career wins have come by submission and he is one of two UFC fighters to win a fight by twister submission. Since signing with the UFC, however, Mitchell has earned the majority of wins by decision, including his most recent fight, which was against Andre Fili.

Mitchell is checking in as a -162 favourite on the UFC odds board against Barboza (+132), who has struggled against top-tier opponents in the last five years. Barboza is coming off an upset loss to Giga Chikadze (+130) last August and will be hungry to notch a win at UFC 272. As for Mitchell, he’s been on an upward trajectory since going pro in 2015.

Other UFC 272 Odds

Kevin Holland vs Alex Oliveira 

Also on the main card, we’ll see a welterweight fight between Kevin Holland (21-1, 1 NC) and Alex Oliveira (22-11, 2 NC). This will be the first time Holland is fighting in the welterweight division since 2017; the Breakout Fighter of 2020 is stepping down from middleweight after struggling against the strength of wrestling attacks in the heavier division. 

Oliveira is looking to bounce back after suffering three straight losses from October 2020 to October 2021. He missed weight against Shavkat Rakhmonov and then went on to lose by submission. He was submitted again the next fight at UFC 261 against Randy Brown. Now with a 0-3 record in his last three, Oliveira is entering as a +230 underdog against the younger Holland (-290).

Sergey Spivak vs. Greg Hardy 

Hardy left his football career for combat sports between 2015 and 2016 and debuted on Dana White’s Contender Series in the heavyweight division. Since signing on with UFC in January 2019, Hardy has gone 4-3, and had one victory overturned for using an inhaler between rounds. The “Prince of War” has dropped his last two fights (both via KO/TKO in the first and second rounds) and will be eager to get his UFC career on the right track.

Pegged as a -220 favourite against Hardy, Spivak (13-3) joined UFC after accumulating a 9-0 record on the indie circuit that culminated with a two-time defense of his WWFC heavyweight championship. He has gone 4-3 since the move to UFC and strung together a three-fight win streak from 2020 to 2021 that ended with a first-round TKO loss at the hands of Tom Aspinall.

Keep checking in with Bodog Sportsbook for fresh UFC odds as we approach the fight. The main card starts at 10 PM ET, and the early preliminaries start at 6 PM ET.

*Odds as of March 1st, 2022

 

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How to Bet on UFC

The world of combat sports changed forever on November 12, 1993, when the Ultimate Fighting Championship held their first event in front of 7,800 fight fans in Denver. Now they’re the biggest promotion in mixed martial arts, regularly packing large arenas, and even stadiums, thanks to the millions of people around the world who are betting on the UFC. If you’d like a piece of the action, this UFC Betting 101 guide will show you how to bet on MMA fights, plus some tips and tricks to maximize your betting value.

 

UFC Betting

Unlike other sports that feature a regular season and a playoff, the UFC runs events throughout the year, with the most important ones reserved for pay-per-view and the rest shown on television or UFC Fight Pass. Each card will have about a dozen fights, including preliminaries, with the main event at the top of the card; PPV main events usually have a title on the line, from one of the UFC’s 12 weight divisions (eight male, four female). Here are your options for how to bet on the UFC:

 

Betting On The UFC

Moneyline Betting on the UFC

Like most head-to-head sports, including boxing and tennis, UFC betting is done using moneyline odds, which are expressed at Bodog Sportsbook using the American odds format. One of the fighters will be the favourite, and the other will be the underdog – unless they have exactly the same odds, in which case, the fight will be a pick ‘em. UFC moneyline odds are fixed odds, no point spread attached; all you have to do is pick the winner. The odds you get at the time you place your bet are the odds used to calculate your payout.

 

What Are UFC Moneyline Odds?

To further illustrate this concept, here’s the moneyline from one of the most famous fights in UFC history, when Conor McGregor first met Nate Diaz on March 5, 2016 at UFC 196:

 

  • Diaz                 +300
  • McGregor       –400

McGregor went into this non-title Welterweight bout at the UFC Featherweight champion, and an incredibly popular –400 favorite, paying out $100 for every $400 wagered. With the American odds format, the favorite will always have the negative sign; the underdog usually has the positive sign, as it was in this case with Diaz at +300. In the end, Diaz won this fight via second-round submission, and paid out $300 for every $100 wagered. Smaller and larger bets are allowed, within the minimum and maximum limits at Bodog Sportsbook.

 

Parlay Betting on the UFC

Chances are you’ll want to bet on more than one fight at a time. If you’re looking for a big payday, you can combine all those bets into a single parlay at Bodog. UFC parlays can feature anywhere from two to 12 moneylines; if you get all your picks right, you get paid exponentially more than you would by placing those bets individually. However, if even one of those picks is wrong, the entire parlay loses. It’s the classic risk/reward scenario in action.

 

How Do UFC Parlay Bets Work?

To figure out how much you’ll get paid if your parlay cashes in, just multiply the UFC odds for each fight in your combo bet. This can be a little tricky with moneyline odds. You can do it by hand, or by using one of the many parlay calculators available on the internet. Bodog Sportsbook will do the math for you automatically when you’re filling out your bet slip.

For example, the co-main event at UFC 196 was the following Women’s Bantamweight title fight between champion Holly Holm and challenger Miesha Tate:

 

Tate +240
Holm -310

 

Holm was the heavy favorite after taking the title in a shocking, yet convincing upset over Ronda Rousey, who had beaten Tate soundly in both their earlier fights. However, it was Tate winning the belt by submission late in the fifth round. If you had bet $50 on Diaz and another $50 on Tate, you would have earned $270 in profit, but combining the two underdogs in a $100 parlay would have paid $720 instead. The more fights you add to a parlay, the bigger the payout – as long as you get all those picks right.

 

Futures Betting on the UFC

Betting on UFC futures can be a bit confusing compared to other sports, but it’s actually quite simple. Every once in a while, a situation comes up where two fighters might meet in the Octagon, but nothing has been made official just yet. If it’s two big-name fighters, and enough people are buzzing about their potential matchup, UFC futures odds will be posted.

 

What Is a UFC Futures Bet?

A futures bet in the UFC works exactly the same as a moneyline bet, with a favourite and an underdog shown as above using the American odds format. The only difference is you can’t use futures odds in your UFC parlay.

 

Prop Betting on the UFC

UFC prop bets (short for proposition bets) ask you to wager on something other than the straight-up winner of a fight. Among the most common UFC props are Margin of Victory, where you bet on whether a fighter will win by TKO/KO/DQ, submission, or decision, and Total Rounds, where you bet on whether the fight will go Over or Under the posted total.

Betting on UFC props gets even busier when there’s a marquee matchup on the card. It’s kind of like the Super Bowl; if the fight’s big enough, you might see props for things like which round the fight will end in, or whether a fighter will win by unanimous decision or majority/split decision.

 

How to Bet on the UFC

UFC Betting Strategy and Tips

The more you know about mixed martial arts, the better you’ll do at picking a winner. But even if you’re a beginner, you can put the squeeze on your competition by going online and doing some quick research on the two fighters in question. As they say, styles make fights; a well-rounded MMA practitioner will be skilled at both striking and grappling, both on offense and defense. Look for fights where one opponent’s strengths match up well against the other opponent’s weaknesses. In general. someone with black belts in multiple disciplines (say, Brazilian jiu-jistu and Muay Thai) is more likely to prevail against someone with a lesser belt in just one martial art.

You can also find betting value on the UFC props market by paying attention to the weight divisions. Smaller fighters tend to have more stamina, and they don’t pack the same punching power as fighters from the heavier divisions. It makes a big difference; in the lightest UFC division, Women’s Strawweight (up to 115 pounds), roughly 70 percent of fights end in a decision, while the men in the Heavyweight division (206-265 pounds) only go to the judges’ score cards about 25% of the time.

 

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