The Philadelphia Union just barely squeaked into the Major League Soccer playoffs last year. At this rate, they won’t be back in 2017. The Union have yet to win this year, losing four matches and drawing twice. At press time, they’re way down the MLS Cup futures market at +10000. But that might be a bargain in such a parity-driven league, and this Saturday (1 PM ET), the Union are –105 favourites for their matchup with the visiting Montreal Impact.

It hasn’t been sunshine and roses for Montreal (+2800 to win the Cup), either. They made it all the way to the Eastern Conference Finals last year, but the Impact have started the 2017 campaign with one win, three draws and two losses in six matches. They’re in 10th place in the East, ahead of only Philadelphia, and they’re +285 underdogs for Saturday’s match with the draw priced at +250.

Power Shortage

Things started going sour for the Union last June, when they followed up an eight-match undefeated streak (three wins, five draws) with an epic slump that nearly pushed them out of the playoffs. Philadelphia made it in on goal differential, only to lose 3-1 to Toronto FC in the first round. Now the Union are at the bottom of the table. They’ve scored just five goals in six matches. Chris Pontius, who led the squad last year with 12 goals in his Philly debut, has yet to find the back of the net.

Montreal has enjoyed more success since joining the MLS in 2012, making the playoffs three times in five years. Unlike the 2010 expansion team from Philadelphia, which was built from scratch, the Impact have been playing soccer since 1993, when they were in the United Soccer League. That’s given Montreal a leg up on the competition, and a better shot at signing top international talent – particularly from the Francophone world.

Unfortunately for the Impact, one of those stars has skipped town. Didier Drogba (21 goals in 33 matches) was a key player for Montreal in 2015 and 2016, but the former Chelsea striker started breaking down late last season, and now he’s a player-owner for Phoenix Rising FC of the USL. Without Drogba’s contributions, the Impact have scored just seven times this year; combined with Philadelphia’s struggles, that makes the under worth a look this Saturday at +105 on the standard total of 2.5 goals.


*Odds as of April 20, 2017