After a wild first weekend of college football, what does the NFL have in store? The pros get underway on Thursday, which means it’s last call for regular season win totals. Last season, some of the best bets were the Carolina Panthers, who rewarded their ‘over’ bettors with a 15-1 season, and the Dallas Cowboys, who fell apart due to injuries and delivered an easy ‘under’.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at the board and focus in on five teams that could be offering some good value on the regular season wins prop.
New England Patriots
Regular Season Win Total: 10.5
Tom Brady will serve a four-game suspension to start the 2016 season. Despite this, the Patriots are still expected to win 10 or 11 games according to the oddsmakers. This prediction is based heavily on the fact that the Pats have produced 13 consecutive seasons where they’ve won at least 10 games. In 11 of those seasons, they’ve won more than 10 games.
New York Jets
Regular Season Win Total: 8
The Jets won 10 games last season and return to 2016 with the core of their team still intact, yet oddsmakers suggest that the Jets will be just a .500 team this year. A challenge for the team will be their early season schedule, which is among the toughest over the first six weeks. They’ll host the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1 before heading to Buffalo and Kansas City. They come back home to face Seattle in Week 4, and then visit Pittsburgh and Arizona. Four of those teams were in the playoffs last year and none of the Jets’ first six opponents had less than eight wins in 2015.
Minnesota Vikings
Regular Season Win Total: 9.5
Many experts had the Minnesota Vikings among their picks to repeat with double-digit wins and be a playoff participant this season. That optimism dissipated last week when quarterback Teddy Bridgewater was lost for the season to a knee injury. As a result, the Vikings’ regular season win total has dropped to just eight. Can they get newly-acquired quarterback Sam Bradford up to speed quickly? If so, the Vikings could ride star running back Adrian Peterson and a solid defense (ranked fifth in points per game allowed last season) to a better record than most expect.
Oakland Raiders
Regular Season Win Total: 8.5
The Raiders were a cellar-dweller for many years, but head coach Jack Del Rio has guided his team back to respectability. Many experts feel that they are ready to take the next step this season. Quarterback Derek Carr is one of the best young passers in the league, and he has plenty of quality weapons around him with Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree and Latavius Murray. They’ll score points, but can the defense play well enough to get this team to the playoffs? They ranked just 26th in pass defense last year.
Washington Redskins
Regular Season Win Total: 7.5
The Redskins surprised everyone when they won the NFC East last year, but most are pessimistic that they can do it again. But why not? They might be the steadiest team in the division. The Dallas Cowboys will be without star quarterback Tony Romo until around midseason, the Philadelphia Eagles just traded their starting quarterback (Sam Bradford) while the New York Giants have a new head coach and plenty of new faces on the roster. They rewarded ‘over’ bettors last year and might do so again if they can continue to play the way they did in the second half of the 2015 campaign.
*Odds as of September 8, 2016