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Shortly after bowing out of the European Union, England made an exit from Euro 2016 with a 1-2 loss in the Round of 16. The country that stunned them, Iceland, has become the tournament’s top story.

Prior to Euro 2016, Iceland had never qualified for a major soccer tournament, so it was a surprise when they tied Portugal and a minor miracle when they survived the group stage. But they weren’t expected to pull off a cataclysmic upset over a soccer powerhouse like England. After all, the entire population of Iceland (323,000) is a fraction of England’s 53 million residents. How could a tiny nation spoil it for the Brits? But that’s exactly what happened in the most shocking result in the Round of 16.

As we head to the quarter-finals, Iceland is again a massive underdog; they’re +750 against France (-235), with the draw at +340. France looked vulnerable when they trailed Ireland 0-1, in the Round of 16, before climbing back in the second half. We’ll see if Iceland’s Cinderella story continues in the last quarterfinal matchup set for Sunday. 

Aside from Iceland’s stunning result, the other Round of 16 matchups went by-the-book for the most part. Portugal outlasted Croatia 1-0, Germany pounded Slovakia 3-0, Belgium smoked Hungary 4-0, Wales topped Northern Ireland 1-0, and Poland edged Switzerland on penalties. Italy topped Spain 2-0 in a mild upset, but Italy has been playing very well this tournament.

Looking ahead to the quarter-finals, the first contest we’ll see is Portugal and Poland on Thursday. These two teams have had easy draws up to this point and with a tougher schedule, neither would have survived. Portugal is the bigger name, but they’ve struggled in this tournament. These two are fringe contenders to win it all, with Portugal at +650 and Poland at +1600.

The second quarter-final game is the Wales-Belgium matchup on Friday. Belgium has more talent and is heavily favoured at -145. They have been an offensive juggernaut this tournament, and their 2 goals per game stat is tied for the best mark so far. As long as they can contain Wales midfielder Gareth Bale, who has scored three goals so far, they should advance. Wales is +450 for this contest and the draw is +260.

Saturday’s quarter-final game features Germany squaring off with Italy. Germany is the reigning World Cup champions and they have performed well again in this tournament. How well? The champs have yet to allow a single goal. That being said, they haven’t played the toughest competition (Poland, Ukraine, Northern Ireland and Slovakia). Italy, who came off a disappointing effort in the World Cup, has come together and looked good. They have allowed just one goal so far while earning impressive wins over Belgium and Spain. They come in as +290 dogs with Germany at +115 and the draw at +205.


*Odds as of June 28, 2016