NFL Futures: The Ups and Downs of the Super Bowl Contenders’ Odds

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NFL Futures: The Ups and Downs of the Super Bowl Contenders’ Odds

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All season long, we’ve been tracking the movement of the Super Bowl futures for all NFL teams. Now that we’re left with the final two, the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons, we can look back and see when they had the most and least value.

 

The Patriots had the Most Value in: the Preseason

Super Bowl Odds: +650

The best time to get the Patriots was entering Week 1, as their odds just continued to improve from that point on. Even with Tom Brady being suspended for the first four games of the season, and star tight end Rob Gronkowski suffering a season-ending injury, you couldn’t have gotten a better price than +650 in the regular season.

The Patriots were co-favourites entering Week 1, but became the clear-cut favourites each and every week afterwards.

 

The Patriots had the Least Value in: Week 17

Super Bowl Odds: +175

The Patriots hit +175 entering Week 17 because they were expected to clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC. The second seed Oakland Raiders also helped the Patriots’ case when they lost star quarterback Derek Carr to a broken leg in Week 16.

As we go to press, the Patriots are –155 favourites on the moneyline to win the Super Bowl.

 

The Falcons had the Most Value in: Week 2

Super Bowl Odds: +7500

The Falcons entered Week 1 at +6600, but their odds tumbled after a rough season opener. They lost at home to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 1, dropping their odds to +7500 entering Week 2. That would have been a great time to pick them up, as they didn’t fall that low again.

Even when they fell to 4-3 after back-to-back losses against the Seattle Seahawks and the San Diego Chargers, their Super Bowl odds remained strong at +2000. They finished the regular season winning seven of their last nine games.

 

The Falcons had the Least Value in: Week 17

Super Bowl Odds: +1000

The Falcons’ Super Bowl futures were in and around the +1600 to +2500 range for the bulk of the season, but the highest they hit in the regular season was entering Week 17. They spiked to +1000 after moving into second seed in the NFC (and were favoured in Week 17 to win and hold on to that position). Losses by the Seattle Seahawks and Detroit Lions in previous weeks had facilitated that ascent. 

 

*Odds as of January 24, 2017