Five Biggest NFL Offseason Moves
The NFL never sleeps, and neither does NFL betting.
The regular season is only 17 weeks, and its another four weeks and change to the Super Bowl. But with offseason moves and drama, the league is a 365 sport.
In the 2006 offseason, the lowly New Orleans Saints signed Drew Brees. The bottom-feeding football team immediately made the NFC Championship and won the Super Bowl three years later. In 2012 QB Peyton Manning was sent packing by the Indianapolis Colts after a neck injury knocked him off the football field all of 2011. The Denver Broncos rolled out the red carpet for his services and in 2013 and made the Super Bowl; the AFC team won the world title in 2015.
A big football offseason can pay big dividends for a franchise … and NFL bettors.
So what moves in the 2019 season have enough juice to shift the Super Bowl Odds? Here’s our five biggest NFL offseason moves in our Bodog Sportsbook.
Odell Beckham Jr. Traded to the Cleveland Browns
There was already some faith in Browns odds after the performance of rookie QB Baker Mayfield in the second half of the 2018 sports season. Cleveland surprisingly re-opened at +3000 on January 15th, 2019 after years of swimming with six-digit underdogs.
But when Odell Beckham Jr. arrived to the "Dawg Pound" on March 12, the NFL odds took another leap to +1200—currently tied at fifth to win the 2020 Super Bowl.
The Browns acquired the superstar wideout from the NFC's New York Giants for a first-and-third round pick and safety Jabrill Peppers. Rewind to 2017 and the odds of players actually wanting to play in Cleveland were unthinkable. But with Mayfield bringing swagger back to the storied franchise Beckham Jr. was excited to be linked with a Mayfield-led offense.
It makes sense, Beckham Jr. routinely posted thousand-plus sports seasons despite an aging and erratic Eli Manning. Now he’ll be joining a sophomore QB who broke the rookie passing TD record total. The Browns also have something the Giants never could acquire opposite Beckham, a legit No. 2 wideout (Jarvis Landry). Landry has four-straight seasons of at least 950-plus receiving yards.
Kyler Murray Drafted by the Arizona Cardinals
An NFL head coach is going to rah-rah-rah his players about how football is all about, “team.” But as former No. 10 pick Josh Rosen learned, in the end the NFL is all business. Just one year after being drafted by the Cardinals as the “franchise” quarterback, Rosen was sent to Miami to bring in a shiny, new franchise QB — Kyler Murray.
The Cardinals are an NFL betting odds longshot (currently +10000) to win the 2020 Super Bowl, but if the hype is real on Murray they could be a great value pick for NFL regular season totals and odds against the spread throughout the season.
The Cardinals are a betting odds longshot (currently +10000) to win the 2020 Super Bowl, but if the hype is real on Murray they could be a great value pick for NFL regular season totals.
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Le’Veon Bell Signed by Jets
When the AFC North's Pittsburgh Steelers put the franchise tag on Le’Veon Bell for the second-straight year, the star running back had enough.
Bell refused to sign the tag and opted to save his legs by sitting out the Steelers' entire 2018-19 season. Generally, the squeaky wheel gets suspended when he stands up to the NFL and its owners. But this offseason not only did Bell have AFC and NFC teams fighting for his services, he eventually got the long-term contract he was looking for.
Bell signed with the AFC's New York Jets for four years and $52.5 million. The pro-bowl RB got the commitment he needed and the Jets got the most complete running back in the game. The Jets have a second-year QB and new head coach. A dominant run game is gold for young signal callers and new offenses. Expect the Jets to get their money’s worth and use Bell as their bell-cow on the ground and as a safety net in passing situations. We are placing bets on this this sports season.
Teams that run well keep the box scores close. Expect to still see New York at the bottom of NFL futures, but their win totals and performance versus NFL odds could get a boost.
Nick Foles to Jacksonville
The Jacksonville Jaguars had a defense so elite that in the 2018 playoffs they almost took out the New England Patriots with Blake Bortles—a QB so spectacularly average that his claim to fame is an entertaining twitter account (@Bortlesfacts) he didn’t even create.
One season removed from losing to the Pats by four in the AFC Conference Championships, the Jaguars won just five games. This offseason, they needed an upgrade at quarterback.
Enter Nick Foles via free agency. A QB who is the toast of Philly after stepping up and willing the Eagles to their first Super Bowl in franchise history. It’s arguable that Foles is better served as a backup who catches defenses unprepared, but there’s no doubt that he’ll be an upgrade over Bortles. The Jaguars need a steady hand at QB while their run game and defense keep games alive. Foles is proven, and is reuniting with the offensive coordinator that helped him to success, John DeFilippo.
The move pushed the Jags to a respectable +3300 betting odds to win the 2020 Super Bowl. Ahead of their division rival the Tennessee Titans, who finished the 2018 season 9-7.
Rob Gronkowski Retires
When you’re 6-6 and weigh 268 pounds, your body punishes defenses but doesn’t last forever.
Rob Gronkowski put himself in the Patriots history books by being one of the most dominant tight ends of his era. He did it despite his towering frame dealing with multiple injuries (including a bad back). Unfortunately, those injuries piled up and the 30-year old tight end looked old and slow in the 2018 playoffs. So when “Gronk” spiked his football career with his third Super Bowl, he promptly retired in the offseason. The sudden move left Tom Brady with a huge hole on offense. With a team surrounded by quick, slot-focused wideouts, Gronk was the big-play threat that carried defenders on his back.
Despite the big offseason move, the NFL betting odds say the Patriots will do what they always do: adjust. The Pats are currently +700 betting lines favorites to win the 2020 Super Bowl, so NFL odds say they’ll be just fine. Wideout Julian Edelman returns to be Brady’s main target, while the team finally drafted a wideout in the first round – N’Keal Harry. Toss in veteran big target Demaryius Thomas and the Pats have enough to do what they always do, give NFL odds headaches.
Head over to the Bodog Sportsbook to see how the rest of the NFL offseason affected the betting odds. Or learn more about NFL betting by checking out our NFL Betting Guide.
*Odds as of August 9, 2019